Wednesday, January 27, 2016

morning thoughts...

The markets remained roller coaster week bygone and now we head in the f/o expiry week which is a truncated one , the markets looks volatile with a probable two side movements in the coming sessions. India's public debt to GDP ratio has never been a real worry. Compared to the 100% plus number for developed economies, India's number stood benign at 65% in FY14, the ratio moved up to 67% in FY15 and is currently higher than that of Russia, China and South Africa.Technically the markets looks in a range between 7300 - 7500 in the coming sessions.While so far there is nothing alarming, the chances of the ratio going up further and creating trouble in the event of major macro crisis is a worry. This risk is worth worrying about because macro shocks in the form of lower than expected growth, another bout of disinflation and higher interest rates can easily arise. So it is important for the government to realize that while public spending is necessary, some fiscal reforms are pertinent to finance that extra spending. Whether it may be via selling stakes in PSUs, fiscal reforms like rationalisation of subsidies or higher direct taxes, the government must look for options other than borrowing. Only then will it get onto the virtuous cycle of higher growth and macro stability.Coming to the commodity markets bullions and energy looks strong and the strategy remains to buy on dips whereas base metals looks weak and is a sell on rise.Astrologically trine inclination of mars and mercury occurs in uranus in next 10 hours which will have crucial effect on stock markets , commodity markets and individuals.
Refer to Advance nifty for predictions - www.dynamictradesfirst.blogspot.in ( make 500 points in nifty and 1500 points in bank nifty in 15 days )
Wednesday wealth gains
Buy upl 400 ca , tata steel 260 ca
Buy Gold , silver , crude ( good rally seen)
Buy nifty and bank on dips
Buy zee , sun pharma , sparc
Sell bob , titan