morning thoughts...
WE WISH YOU ALL A VERY HAPPY NEW YEAR 2016
The markets remained subdued and ended higher on expiry day and now we commence a new expiry and a new year which tends to be volatile and can see two side moves in coming sessions.
The year gone by has been quite flat for Indian equity markets. While the Sensex is down by 5.7% in the year till date, the BSE 500 index fell by 2% in this period. Considering that the expectations built in were quite strong as the markets were hit by positive sentiments towards the end of 2014, the fact of the matter is that the reality disappointed the market participants. The 'overweight' consensus that the Indian markets enjoyed at the start of 2015 took a toll as the year progressed. Not to mention that the earnings have not yet revved up as expected.
WE WISH YOU ALL A VERY HAPPY NEW YEAR 2016
The markets remained subdued and ended higher on expiry day and now we commence a new expiry and a new year which tends to be volatile and can see two side moves in coming sessions.
The year gone by has been quite flat for Indian equity markets. While the Sensex is down by 5.7% in the year till date, the BSE 500 index fell by 2% in this period. Considering that the expectations built in were quite strong as the markets were hit by positive sentiments towards the end of 2014, the fact of the matter is that the reality disappointed the market participants. The 'overweight' consensus that the Indian markets enjoyed at the start of 2015 took a toll as the year progressed. Not to mention that the earnings have not yet revved up as expected.
Having said that, the expectations are still high - as gauged by valuations. In both absolute and relative terms. The price to earnings ratio of frontline stocks continues to remains above the long term average. As per business daily Mint, when compared to the MSCI index (ex-Japan), the Sensex commands a premium of about 5 in P/E terms. This stood at about 4.6 in April and about 4 in May this year. It went to as much as 6.8 in August before narrowing to current levels.Given that the financial performance of India Inc is at its worst in many years, the expectations of a quick revival is what is keeping the markets afloat. Return on capital employed and asset turnovers are at their worst in many years. As and when the economy revives, these parameters will definitely improve. But the key question as we go into 2016 is how long investors will remain patient.Coming to the commodity markets some buying is likely in bullions and base metals , whereas energy looks weak.
Year 2016 is year of mars 9- get full detailed horoscope - personal - equity commodity markets-
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Friday wealth gains
Buy gold , silver , natural gas
Sell crude
Buy nifty and bank nifty on dips
Buy reliance infra 560 ca , dlf 120 ca
Buy hdil , tata motors , balrampur chini
