morning thoughts...
The markets remained jittery and the same pattern is likely to continue in coming sessions.
The RBI recently held all key interest rates constant. This was largely on expected lines. However, there are many challenges ahead. Inflation could trend up higher than expected. The US Fed's rate hike on 16 December now looks inevitable. The rupee has looked vulnerable recently.
The markets remained jittery and the same pattern is likely to continue in coming sessions.
The RBI recently held all key interest rates constant. This was largely on expected lines. However, there are many challenges ahead. Inflation could trend up higher than expected. The US Fed's rate hike on 16 December now looks inevitable. The rupee has looked vulnerable recently.
Monetary policy cannot address all of the country's economic concerns. That said the RBI has quite a lot on its plate we believe. It needs to maintain its accommodative stance and yet keep inflation expectations in check. This is no easy task.Other concerns have crept up recently. In two consecutive government bond auctions last month, the RBI had to accept bids at below its pre-determined cut-off price due to low demand. Clearly, foreigners who have been big investors in the Indian bond markets are getting nervous. The lack of economic reforms has made matters worse.If there's an adverse reaction to a rate hike by the US Fed, India could witness capital outflows. This would take a toll on the currency. The last time this happened, the Rupee fell to a record low of around 69 to the US$. A repeat of the same would make imports, including crude, more expensive, thus driving up inflation. India's exports have been on a major slide. The reasons are varied. Demand slowdown in the developed world and China, lack of competitiveness, increasing competition from other developing countries, an over-valued currency, lack of domestic reforms are all to blame. While there is no magic solution, a good place to start would be to get a holistic picture of the slowdown.While fall in US exports was just 5% YoY, exports to Asia was down 18.6% YoY in 1HFY16. This clearly highlights the magnitude of the problem. Depending on a broad based economic recovery in the developed world would be futile in our opinion. India has long and difficult path ahead in the quest to become an export powerhouse.
Tuesday wealth gains
Buy nifty and bank nifty on dips
Jackpot Buy edl
Buy zee , dlf , bharti
Buy idea 140 ca, sbi 240 ca
Sell gold , silver , crude
