Monday, September 7, 2015

morning thoughts...

A theory related and applied to stock markets – shmita
This is for informative purpose – take your own informed decisions
Let's take a look at the incredibly accurate timing of the Shmita Year as it impacts modern history in the realm of finances, economies and empires:
1901-1902 Shmita Year - 46% U.S. Stock market value wiped out.
1916-1917 Shmita Year - 40% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. German, Austro-Hungarian, Russian and Ottoman Empires collapsed. Britain, the world's greatest empire was almost bankrupt. The beginning of American to rise to world power. All during this one Shmita year.
1930-1931 Shmita Year - 86% U.S stock market value wiped out in the worst financial crisis in modern history.
1937-1938 Shmita Year - 50% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. Global recession.
1944-1945 Shmita Year - End of German Reich and Britain's hold on territories. Establishment of America as the world's super power.
1965-1966 Shmita Year - 23% stock market value wiped out.
1972-1973 Shmita Year - 48% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. Global recession. U.S. Voted to kill its unborn children (Abortion legalized). U.S. lost its first war - Vietnam...
1979-1980 Shmita Year - U.S. and global recession.
1986-1987 Shmita Year - 33% U.S. Stock market value wiped out.
1993-1994 Shmita Year - Bond market crash.
2000-2001 Shmita Year - 37% U.S. stock market value wiped out. 9/11 and Global recession.
2007-2008 Shmita Year - 50% U.S. Stock market value wiped out. Global recession.
2014-2015 Shmita Year - Same pattern but very severe judgment coming
The current Shmita Year, September 25, 2014 - September 13, 2015 is the 7th and last Shmita year in this cycle then follows the 50th year, Jubilee...year of liberation (Rapture). From the above facts... one can see the systematic pattern of the Shmita Year woven into the recent history of today's society. Buckle up, we're in for a rough ride in the days ahead.
However we feel that the shmita year is till 2016 september – kindly take your own decision
So is there really a seven year cycle? What would it look like if there was? It's easy to take eg 2008, the stock market high and go back 7 years to 2001 and say "Look! The 911 attack happened then!". My simple response would be that 911 is possibly a connected event, but only possibly. Let's look back some more before jumping to possibly false conclusions.
Another 7 years prior was 1994 a time during which the bond market took a dive. But I have this nagging doubt still. Look at it this way, every year bad things happen and it's so easy to cherry pick newsy events to curve fit a theory. I need to see either more precision, or more duration of an increased number os repetitious sequences to become convinced.
So with that in mind I went back to 1915 and walked forward 100 years to see how a 7 year alleged cycle corresponds with the price of the Dow Jones Industrial Average in stocks.
Readers are free to make up their own minds about what they see, or don't see. I provide the visual track record for your perusal. Oh also, this cycle has a test using the Bartels test of approximately 90% probability of being non random in timing and fit of it's wave structure.
I tracked it back to 1865 but decided to show the last 100 years for this contribution
Of course those of us who are politically aligned might point to a 7.5 to 8.5 year cycle which could occur when two presidency terms within the US, Japan or elsewhere are filled consecutively by the same individual, a like-thinking sequence of individuals (such as in communist countries, a "chosen" replacement candidate) or when two business cycles are joined together in a pairing. Many countries choose political leaders such as they are able to, at 3 1/2 to 4 year intervals, and therefore two terms together makes up the required time. So the Sabbath is a nice idea, and it goes back a long time for sure, but I merely point out to readers that the self organized structure of mankind in many places on the planet allows for semi repetitious performance, whether to good or bad effect, for other reasons too. Choose your cause if you need to.
Did you notice a tendency to go down for only 1/4 of the 7 years and to go sideways and up for the other 3/4s? That is it may go up for 5 1/4 or 5 1/2 years and fall quite quickly for the remainder of the 7 year period. If this cycle is real, that tendency might be real too.
So ... if it doesn't bottom at the half way point, could this exercise just be looking at pairs of three and a half year cycles? It might well be so. If it were so, then the lows in the seven year idealized sine wave might look like highs instead of lows, and the actual lows would appear at the times when the sine wave crosses it's midpoint, or centre of trading range. Possibly this happens sometimes but not all the time and both cycles can be seen doing their thing.
There is another angle to the narrative of the Schemitah. That is that seventh Schemitah (every 7 x 7 = 49 years) can be "a big one"! Pay attention to this period for anniversaries of turbulent events past. Also, 49 years is not that far from the 53-54 year Kondratieff economic cycle, and given that these types of things have a certain built in variance there could be a link.
You've got to decide some things for yourself, especially when the information available is partial and subjective, rather than enough to constitute proof. I think there is enough information here to work with, or make a good start into a more detailed investigation, should that be deemed necessary.

AS PER OUT VIEW ITS THE SEMI CONTRA SHMITA WHICH IS TILL 2016 SEPTEMBER - WHICH IS A SIGNAL FOR MAJOR OPPURTUNITY FOR STOCKS AND INDEX 

STOCKS READY FOR A 50-60% CRASH OR UPMOVE..?
NIFTY 6800 OR 8500..?

KNOW IN ADVANCE POSITIONAL NIFTY AND CREATE MAJOR WEALTH OR LOSE OPPURTUNITY LIKE EARLIER YEARS 2006, 2008 , 2011 ETC...