Monday, March 16, 2015

morning thoughts...

The markets reacted from the resistance levels mentioned and saw a good fall to support levels of 8650 levels on the nifty front.
Technically the markets are on support levels and can see some more downsides in the coming sessions and will create a base for short to medium term.
The strategy remains to buy on dips as the multi astrological change would create deceptions and trap traders.
The RBI has been under constant pressure to take cognizance of the recent fall in consumer inflation numbers. The fact that the central bank has not executed a free fall in interest rates in response to fall in oil and food prices has surprised many. 
However, the central bank stood its ground. And without the government taking reform measures to keep inflation under control, interest rates in India are unlikely to come down too much too soon. Now, a recent IMF paper points out that El Nino conditions may soon hit the prices of agri products in India. Of course, over the years, Indian agriculture has become less susceptible to El Nino. Increase in the contribution of rabi and decline in kharif crops, more developed agricultural markets and policies, rising agricultural yield, early warning systems on climate etc have aided drought-resistant and short-duration crops. However, the concern over food inflation is far from over. Therefore as inflation raises its ugly head once again, one can expect the RBI to get cautious in its Monetary Policy stance. 
Coming to the commodity markets bullions , base metals looks positive and energy looks weak in the coming sessions.

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Friday's calls sent

Nifty - sell at cmp 8849 sl 8875 targets 8770 - went 8652
Bank Nifty - sell at cmp 19381 sl 19524 targets 19000 - went 18820
Double bumper Rec 340 pa - buy at cmp 6.10 sl 3.90 targets 12 - went 15
Pfc 280 pa - buy at cmp 5 sl 3.50 targets 9 - went 12
Double bumper Dlf 160 ca - buy at cmp 3.50 sl 2 targets 8 - went 9.35
Hdil - buy at cmp 115 sl 113.50 targets 120 - hit sl
Rajesh exports - buy at cmp 189 sl 187 targets 200 - hit sl
Lic - sell at cmp 470 sl 475 targets 450 - went 446
Gold Mcx - buy at cmp 25650 sl 25600 targets 25850 - booked at 25837
Crude Mcx - sell at cmp 3011 sl 3045 targets 2930 - booked at 2945