Tuesday, February 24, 2015

morning thoughts...

The markets started the week on a weak note with nifty sliding below 8800 levels .

Technically we are into an important week with mega astrological changes and nifty heading towards 8300 or 9350 levels.....?
We have already issued the report and taken positions accordingly.
Investors who burnt their fingers in the last bull run are being wary this time around. Not being sure whether the bull run will leave you richer or poorer is indeed a grave conundrum. Hence, not just the ones who have failed to create wealth with stocks but also new investors are looking for flight to safety this time around. Some are exiting stocks completely. Others are trying to buy stocks that still appear very cheap. And many are buying bluechip stocks as their valuations continue to look relatively lucrative compared to their midcap and smallcap peers. 
Now, buying safe bluechips can be one of the best investment strategies across market cycles. However investors should not confuse the safety of bluechips with a discount in their valuations. 
As you may have already guessed the list includes PSU banks, infrastructure and power companies, commodity companies and the like. The reason for these stocks to be trading at a discount is certainly based on the weakness of their fundamentals. And apart from few of these that look attractive and current valuations, investors have every reason to be wary of these bluechips too! Being large entities does not qualify them to be automatically safe. The large PSU banks may be cornering a big chunk of the banking market. However, their disproportionately large restructured assets have the potential to write off their networth. Hence it is not without reason that many such stocks are trading below book value. 
So while it is good for value investors to be greedy when others are fearful, you need to be sure that the valuations are indeed at a discount to intrinsic value. The valuations gap between large and midcap companies should not be the only reason to switch to the former. 

Coming to the commodity markets bullions , base metals and energy will remain volatile with a buy on dip strategy

www.astroeyes.blogspot.in


Yesterday's calls sent


Nifty - sell at cmp 8929 sl 8950 targets 8800 - went 8735

Bank nifty - sell at cmp 19200 sl 19300 targets 18900 - went 18835
Dlf - buy at cmp 148 sl 146 targets 155 - hit sl
Mcx india- buy at cmp 987 sl 975 targets 1030 - went 1065
Lupin - sell at cmp 1690 sl 1715 targets 1620 - went 1600
Fii Pg Electrocast - buy at cmp 93 sl 87 targets 105 - went 107
Convert 10k into 30k Zee 360 pa - buy at cmp 8.35 sl 6 targets 15 - went 16.65
Double bumper Hdil 110 pa - buy at cmp 0.85 sl 0.35 targets 3 - went 3.75