Thursday, August 21, 2014

morning thoughts...

Jupiter is out of combust mode which calls for volatility and consolidation in the coming sessions.
Technically the markets are ought to follow a range with 7790 as strong support zones and 7900 as stiff supply zones.
However we are of the view that certain side line counters and technology stocks will continue outperformance.
The Indian equity markets have witnessed fresh highs this year. However, the turnaround in the market sentiments has not been in line with economic fundamentals that are yet to witness a clear recovery. Much of this gain has been driven by expectations and liquidity due to foreign money pouring in. 
Indian markets are the second highest gainer this year, next only to Cyprus. In the year till date, India's market capitalization has gone up by 34%, thus surpassing most of the other emerging markets by a decent margin. The Indian markets are now trading at a premium of 40% to MSCI Emerging markets. 
So far so good. But what would be the driving factor for markets from here on? As one can make out, the recovery aspect already seems to be priced in to a good extent. Infact, some of the well known emerging market investors are already finding Indian equity markets quite expensive. While sentiments seem to be improving, delivery is yet to happen and is likely to take some time. Meanwhile, the Indian stock markets remain highly vulnerable to high FII exposure. Hence, investors should be cautious while placing their bets in Indian stock markets. Instead of buying the reform story, we believe they should focus on finding good businesses with enough margin of safety in valuations. 


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Yesterday's wealth creators

Sell gold and silver gave 245 and 567 respectively
Buy copper gave 3 rs , crude gave 67 rs
Fii and jackpot - ktil rose 27 rs , bpcl rose 35 rs
Indoco remedies rose 26 rs , indswift labs rose 19%
Drl 2800 ca doubled , Icici bank 1500 ca tripled