Tuesday, July 22, 2014

morning thoughts...

Well the markets stills looks up with minor resistance at 7800 levels and supports exists at 7490 levels.






Monday, July 21, 2014

morning thoughts...

Lord Saturn turns direct today , the positioning of Lord Saturn holds a significant importance. When Lord Saturn undergoes retrogression or turns direct, it not only affects the nature but affects our lives as well. 
On July 21, 2014, Lord Saturn will turn direct into the zodiac sign, Libra. As a result, rainfall will resume in many areas of the country. Adequate rainfall is possible in the south-west regions. However, natural calamities are also possible in particular areas. North-eastern regions will also get sufficient rainfall. Gaining control over inflation will become difficult for the government. Prices of seeds may rise up. Crops and grains may get affected by the attack of pests. Alterations in power of some states could be witnessed at this time. Also, some leaders may lose their position or may face changes in it. Religious feelings will propagate among the people. Religious deeds and activities would be organized. During this time, disputed related to any religious matter is also possible. 
Major effect will be witnessed on equity , commodity markets and personal horoscopes.
The markets continued its journey upwards as said and expected and is likely to continue the same in the coming sessions.
Technically the markets are still up and would face resistance at 7800 levels and find supports at 7600 levels on the nifty front.
Coming to the commodity markets one of the major investment assets where people park their hard-earned money, gold stands out as a favorite in India. 
The history of rising gold prices has lured many people to invest in gold in the hope of even higher prices. We are not at all against gold investments. In fact, we believe they ought to be an important component of a person's investment portfolio. 
However, we differ on one fundamental aspect about gold. And this is how you look at it and what you expect out of it. Gold, in our view, is not a productive asset. It does not create wealth. But it performs a very critical function. It helps to preserve wealth in times of distress. What do we mean by distress? This could mean reckless government policies, high inflation and unforeseen catastrophes. Yes, gold has always come in handy as an insurance against bad times. 
The value of a nation's currency is a barometer for its economic health. It was almost a year back when rupee touched record lows of around 68 per dollar. The fall was a response to India's poor economy, further sparked by the Fed's move to taper its asset purchases. Since then, the rupee seems to have made a comeback. This could be attributed to an improvement in economic data such as shrinking current account, capital inflows and as well as proactive monetary policy. 
However, at around 60.3 per USD, rupee is quite far from its fair value. The recent Economic Survey suggests that with consumer price index (CPI) and 2004-2005 as base, rupee is overvalued by around 12.3% in real effective exchange rate
One should note that some of the key reasons behind the decline in current account deficit were restriction on gold imports and weak rupee (that promoted exports). An overvalued rupee amidst high inflation could be risky. It could negate the benefits from lower current account deficit. This is because a rising rupee will make India's exports less competitive. Since exports account for a major share in GDP, this could have serious implications for economic fundamentals
Exports are our best bet as far as economic recovery is concerned. Amid high inflation, the consumption factor is unlikely to contribute much. With an ambitious fiscal deficit target and limited funds, expecting a quick turnaround in investment cycle will be naive. As such, there is a significant threat to economic recovery on the currency front. This is something that both the policymakers and investors need to watch out for. Especially with concerns like Iraq crisis and monsoon deficit threatening the recovery prospects. 
Meanwhile, investors should shield themselves against any development that could adversely impact economic and market sentiments. And as far as volatility of paper currencies are concerned, there can be no better hedge than gold. Hence, we reiterate our stance that investors should have some part of their overall investment portfolio allocated towards gold


Friday's Wealth Creators

Tcs 2400 ca , idfc 160 ca , petronet lng 180 ca doubled the same day

Hitachi home rose 38 rs , J & k bank rose 66 rs , kotak bank rose 32 rs

Nifty rose 92 rs , bank nifty rose 157 rs , nifty 7600 ca rose 29 rs

Sell gold cracked 398 rs , silver 765 rs , copper 6 rs

Buy crude rose 67 rs

Friday, July 18, 2014

morning thoughts...

The markets bounced as expected and closed above the intraday resistance levels.
Technically the markets looks fine and should continue the uptrend in the coming sessions with positive bias.
However, Defensives are the fall back options during times of gloom and uncertainty, till the end of last year, FMCG stocks were the preferred pack on the back of their stable growing businesses, improving financial performances, higher payout ratios, etc. Not to mention the lack other good areas to invest in at the time. And in the process, pretty much the entire sector's valuations sky rocketed. 
However, in the year till date, the BSE-FMCG Index has been amongst the worst performers, rising by only 5% during this period. In comparison, the BSE-Capital Goodsand the BSE-Bankex indices are up by about 53% and 34% respectively. 
It seems that a little over a month of the Modi government has completely changed the sentiments. And why not? After all, there are some signs of the scenario improving. These include higher commercial vehicle sales volumes, rising IIP numbers, improving trends in the manufacturing and services PMI, higher non-oil imports, all of which point towards the economy improving from here on.
And in the process, the focus has shifted away from FMCG stocks, it seems! 

While higher valuations may be one aspect, it is believed that FMCG companies are likely to see pressure on volumes given the higher inflation levels and the reduction in discretionary spending.
Astrologically Hareeyali shravan shani dev amavasya is considered to be most auspicious and is celebrated with high gusto in north , south and west india with great enthusiasm , most of the flaws of people are nullified and they are blessed with happiness , security , health and wealth , so one must do thier best according to thier horoscopes on the day, the day falls on 26 july - saturday this year.
One right step towards astrology can change destiny.
All kinds of Business/job problems,education,higher studies, Career Problems, promotions , transfers, Problems of Marriage , delay in marriage , problems in marital life , Child Problems,Bad debt/loan Problems, legal /court problems, Depression , foreign migration problems,restlesness and frustration problems , failure in business/job/studies, Land & Property Problems, Intrepration of dreams,dream analysis , family problems , lucky bank no , car no ,colour of cars ,name- based on numerology , stocks , commodity , bullion , forex speculations and investment based on numerology and planet inclinations

And in turn, it now seems to be the time for cyclical businesses. As mentioned in the Business Standard, automobiles, auto ancillary, cement, and capital goods sectors have all seen an increased proportion in mutual funds' holdings. 

First it was the electoral victory of the Modi government. Then came the RBI booster of relaxation in cash reserve ratio (CRR) and Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR) on money raised for infrastructure financing. And finally, now it's a BRICS bank which will soon be a reality. The idea of floating such a bank was tossed by India way back in 2012. But it got a go ahead in the recent leadership summit at Brazil. The bank will be funding the infrastructure financing needs of the member countries. Considering the fact that traditional sources of bank funding were proving to be inadequate, an inter-country bank such as a BRICS bank, will help channelising funds from surplus countries to ones who are in need. Also, since infra financing needs are long term in nature, there was a constant need of some special institution like the one proposed which could be tailor made and has sufficient liquidity at its disposal. 
We believe that with the setting up of this bank India's infrastructure dreams could get a further fillip. With a pro-reformist government at the Centre, India can tap liquidity needs from BRICS bank to plug its funding gap. This opens up a completely new source of funding for India. Now what matters is execution. For that, we also have a government in place. While it may be too early to comment on the execution prowess of the new government, we hope that it at least does better than the previous one on this front. 

Real estate companies have been badly affected in the slowdown is quite well known. Quite a few of these companies have seen inventories pile up as buyers chose to stay on the sidelines. The fact that many pockets in the country continued to report high prices did nothing to bolster sales either. Sagging sales and bloated debt on their books means that real estate developers have been strapped for cash. One option to raise funds was through the IPO route. But although developers such as Lavasa and Lodha among many others announced their intention of filing IPOs, these never really took off. Indeed, as per an article in Firstpost, in 2011 six big ticket real estate IPOs were expected to raise over US$ 2.9 bn. But these plans were deferred. Volatility in the stock markets was one of the prime reasons for the same. And now that stock markets have been buoyant over the past few months, these real estate players are eyeing IPOs once again. Hence, once these IPOs hit the market, investors will need to remain cautious. Many of the IPOs typically tend to get overpriced and it is quite possible that this will be the case with real estate IPOs as well. Ultimately, the analysis for IPOs in no way defers than what you would do if you were to invest in already listed stocks. In other words, invest in the IPO only if you are convinced of the strength of the management and business model and only if the valuations are reasonable. 
However, the fact is that the entire infrastructure pack has rallied as financing woes have been seemingly resolved. And it seems that the market is confident that execution shall take place with a decisive government at the Centre. As a result, valuations of infra stocks have sky rocketed. While prospects may be improving and strong for the infra space.
On the down side 7540 remains as good support levels whereas stiff resistance can be witnessed around 7725 levels.
Coming to the commodity markets gold , silver looks weak
Base metals too looks weak , whereas energy is a buy and looks strong


Fridays wealth creators

Due to change in mercury to pisces technology and steel will out perform markets

BUY -Tcs 2400 ca , Idfc 160 ca , Petronet lng 180 ca 
BUY - Hitachi home , j & k bank , kotak bank

Thursday, July 17, 2014

morning thoughts...

Thursday wealth creators

Buy Jackpot and Fii calls Savita chemicals , numeric power systems

Buy Crompton greaves 200 ca , Cesc 620 ca , Nifty 7600 ca

Yesterdays - idfc 150 ca , pfc 280 pa doubled

Biocon rose 18 rs , orchid chemicals rose 12 rs

Nifty rose 96 rs , bank nifty rose 277 rs

Gold gave 115 rs , silver 378 rs , copper 3 rs , crude 78 rs

Wednesday, July 16, 2014

morning thoughts...

The markets traded and bounced as expected and closed near to our levels of 7550 on nifty front.
Technically the markets still looks up and would try to test logical targets of 7600 on nifty and 15200 on bank nifty.
However due to multi astrological change there would be volatility in markets and many stocks will continue to underperform inspite of index being strong.
On the lower side 7450 remains as crucial support levels , whereas good resistance will be witnessed around 7625 levels.
On the commodity front bullions , base metals and energy could give a bounce in coming sessions.

Wednesday - stocks to watch

Buy Idfc 150 ca  , Pfc 280 pa

Buy Biocon , Zee tv , Orchid chemicals

Buy Nifty , Bank Nifty

Buy Gold , Silver , Copper , Crude